HORMUZ SIGNALescalation risk monitor

A live gauge of Iran-conflict risk for oil markets — built from shipping, insurance, and energy data, not headlines.

Watch the strait, not the statements

← Dashboard

Conflict coverage tempo, Gulf (7d)

↑ = risk

articles · GDELT

One of the 13 inputs to the composite score. This page shows the latest reading against its peacetime baseline, the recent history, and how much stress this indicator currently adds.

Conflict coverage tempo, Gulf (7d) at 711.0 articles, 53% below the 1,500 normal.

Latest

711.0articles

2026-10-29 02:00 UTC

Normal

~1,500articles

registry baseline

7D trend

▼ 58%

improving · 7d

Observed min / max

6.00 – 8,916articles

trailing 180 days

Model stress

0/ 100

A move of one model span (6,500 articles) above the baseline corresponds to 66.7 stress. Stress rises toward 100 as conditions worsen; 100 is never reached.

History

trailing 180 days

About this indicator

Trailing 7-day count of English-language conflict-related articles about the Gulf / Hormuz / Red Sea (GDELT timelinevolraw). A media-tempo proxy for conflict intensity, not an event count — used because it reacts within hours. Recalibrated Sep 2026 to the measured range (~1.9k calm-week floor, ~8.9k peak, Aug 2026); the original 25/55 calibration pinned the indicator at maximum stress permanently.

Source: GDELT.

Model weight: 5% of the composite score.