Hormuz vessel transits
↓ = risktransits/day · AIS geofence (live, primary) · IMF PortWatch (fallback)
One of the 13 inputs to the composite score. This page shows the latest reading against its peacetime baseline, the recent history, and how much stress this indicator currently adds.
1.30 transits/day vs a normal ~78.0 — currently at 2% of normal.
Latest
1.30transits/day
2026-10-29 01:58 UTC
Normal
~78.0transits/day
registry baseline
7D trend
▼ 91%
worsening · 7d
Observed min / max
0.00 – 51.0transits/day
trailing 180 days
Model stress
80/ 100
A move of one model span (39.0 transits/day) below the baseline corresponds to 66.7 stress. Stress rises toward 100 as conditions worsen; 100 is never reached.
History
trailing 180 daysAbout this indicator
Daily commercial vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz, all vessel types. A sustained drop means shipping is being constrained — the single most direct escalation signal. Baseline reflects the observed pre-war normal (~78/day, Feb 2026 PortWatch mean). PortWatch undercounts during GPS jamming, so the live AIS geofence is primary.
Source: AIS geofence (live, primary) · IMF PortWatch (fallback).
Model weight: 18% of the composite score.