HORMUZ SIGNAL

Watch the strait, not the statements. A composite 0–100 gauge of Iran-conflict escalation risk built from shipping, energy, and conflict data.

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Hormuz tanker transits

↓ = risk

transits/day · IMF PortWatch (satellite AIS)

6.00 transits/day vs a normal ~100.0 — currently at 6% of normal.

Latest

6.00transits/day

2026-09-06 00:00 UTC

Normal

~100.0transits/day

registry baseline

7D trend

0%

flat · 7d

Observed min / max

0.00 – 51.0transits/day

trailing 180 days

Model stress

100/ 100

Full stress (100) at ≈ 50.0 transits/day or lower — baseline minus the model span; 0 is the floor for counts.

History

trailing 180 days

About this indicator

Daily commercial vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz (all vessel types, PortWatch n_total). A sustained drop means shipping is being constrained — the single most direct escalation signal. Baseline reflects the observed pre-war normal (~95-100/day, Feb 2026).

Source: IMF PortWatch (satellite AIS).

Model weight: 22% of the composite score.