Red Sea / Bab el-Mandeb transits

↓ = risk

transits/day · IMF PortWatch (satellite AIS)

One of the 13 inputs to the composite score. This page shows the latest reading against its peacetime baseline, the recent history, and how much stress this indicator currently adds.

36.0 transits/day vs a normal ~37.0 — currently at 97% of normal.

Latest

36.0transits/day

2026-10-25 00:00 UTC

Normal

~37.0transits/day

registry baseline

7D trend

▲ 13%

improving · 7d

Observed min / max

14.0 – 47.0transits/day

trailing 180 days

Model stress

9/ 100

A move of one model span (20.0 transits/day) below the baseline corresponds to 66.7 stress. Stress rises toward 100 as conditions worsen; 100 is never reached.

History

trailing 180 days

About this indicator

Daily commercial transits through the Bab el-Mandeb strait, all vessel types. Constraints here signal a widening regional shipping crisis (Houthi attacks, rerouting around the Cape). Baseline reflects the observed pre-war normal (~37/day, Feb 2026 PortWatch mean).

Source: IMF PortWatch (satellite AIS).

Model weight: 10% of the composite score.