HORMUZ SIGNAL

Watch the strait, not the statements. A composite 0–100 gauge of Iran-conflict escalation risk built from shipping, energy, and conflict data.

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US commercial crude stocks (excl. SPR)

↓ = risk

mbbl · EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

424.1 mbbl vs a normal ~450.0 — currently at 94% of normal.

Latest

424.1mbbl

2026-09-04 00:00 UTC

Normal

~450.0mbbl

registry baseline

7D trend

▼ 0%

flat · 7d

Observed min / max

404.5 – 465.7mbbl

trailing 180 days

Model stress

43/ 100

Full stress (100) at ≈ 390.0 mbbl or lower — baseline minus the model span; 0 is the floor for counts.

History

trailing 180 days

About this indicator

US commercial crude inventories. Tightening inventories mean the market has less buffer against a Gulf supply shock.

Source: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.

Model weight: 10% of the composite score.