HORMUZ SIGNALescalation risk monitor

A live gauge of Iran-conflict risk for oil markets — built from shipping, insurance, and energy data, not headlines.

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US distillate fuel oil stocks

↓ = risk

mbbl · EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

One of the 13 inputs to the composite score. This page shows the latest reading against its peacetime baseline, the recent history, and how much stress this indicator currently adds.

102.8 mbbl vs a normal ~118.0 — currently at 87% of normal.

Latest

102.8mbbl

2026-10-23 00:00 UTC

Normal

~118.0mbbl

registry baseline

7D trend

▼ 1%

flat · 7d

Observed min / max

100.8 – 110.6mbbl

trailing 180 days

Model stress

50/ 100

A move of one model span (30.0 mbbl) below the baseline corresponds to 66.7 stress. Stress rises toward 100 as conditions worsen; 100 is never reached.

History

trailing 180 days

About this indicator

US distillate (diesel/heating oil) inventories. Refined-product tightness amplifies any crude disruption.

Source: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.

Model weight: 4% of the composite score.