Gulf war-risk insurance premium
↑ = risk% hull value · Lloyd's JWC listed areas + GDELT coverage tempo (modelled estimate)
Gulf war-risk insurance premium at 5.12 % hull value, 1948% above the 0.25 normal.
Latest
5.12% hull value
2026-09-12 18:26 UTC
Normal
~0.25% hull value
registry baseline
7D trend
▲ 88%
worsening · 7d
Observed min / max
2.08 – 7.50% hull value
trailing 180 days
Model stress
50/ 100
Full stress (100) at ≈ 10.0 % hull value — baseline plus the model span; readings at or below 0.25 register zero stress.
History
trailing 180 daysAbout this indicator
Additional war-risk premium charged for transiting the Gulf, as % of hull value. No public price series exists (quotes are bilateral), so the level is estimated from the Lloyd's Joint War Committee listed-areas status and war-risk coverage tempo, calibrated to press-reported quotes. Underwriters price danger before headlines do. Recalibrated Aug 2026 to the post-escalation market (quotes of 3–10%).
Source: Lloyd's JWC listed areas + GDELT coverage tempo (modelled estimate).
Model weight: 10% of the composite score.