HORMUZ SIGNALescalation risk monitor

A live gauge of Iran-conflict risk for oil markets — built from shipping, insurance, and energy data, not headlines.

Watch the strait, not the statements

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US amphibious ready groups in theater

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ARGs · USNI News Fleet & Marine Tracker (weekly, via WordPress API)

One of the 13 inputs to the composite score. This page shows the latest reading against its peacetime baseline, the recent history, and how much stress this indicator currently adds.

US amphibious ready groups in theater at 1.00 ARGs, Infinity% above the 0.00 normal.

Latest

1.00ARGs

2026-10-19 16:18 UTC

Normal

~0.00ARGs

registry baseline

7D trend

0%

flat · 7d

Observed min / max

1.00 – 1.00ARGs

trailing 180 days

Model stress

50/ 100

A move of one model span (2.00 ARGs) above the baseline corresponds to 66.7 stress. Stress rises toward 100 as conditions worsen; 100 is never reached.

History

trailing 180 days

About this indicator

Big-deck amphibious assault ships (LHA/LHD hulls — each the flagship of an Amphibious Ready Group embarking a ~2,200-strong Marine Expeditionary Unit) in the same Iran-relevant waters, from the weekly USNI Fleet & Marine Tracker. An ARG/MEU afloat gives Washington ground-force options short of invasion; Marines moving to the region are both a signal and another accident surface. Calm normal is zero in theater.

Source: USNI News Fleet & Marine Tracker (weekly, via WordPress API).

Model weight: 3% of the composite score.