US carrier strike groups in theater
↑ = riskCSGs · USNI News Fleet & Marine Tracker (weekly, via WordPress API)
One of the 13 inputs to the composite score. This page shows the latest reading against its peacetime baseline, the recent history, and how much stress this indicator currently adds.
US carrier strike groups in theater at 2.00 CSGs, 100% above the 1.00 normal.
Latest
2.00CSGs
2026-10-19 16:18 UTC
Normal
~1.00CSGs
registry baseline
7D trend
▲ 100%
worsening · 7d
Observed min / max
1.00 – 3.00CSGs
trailing 180 days
Model stress
50/ 100
A move of one model span (2.00 CSGs) above the baseline corresponds to 66.7 stress. Stress rises toward 100 as conditions worsen; 100 is never reached.
History
trailing 180 daysAbout this indicator
US aircraft carriers (CVN hulls) operating in Iran-relevant waters — Arabian Sea, Red Sea, Gulf of Oman/Aden, Persian Gulf, Mediterranean — as positioned in the weekly USNI Fleet & Marine Tracker. Force posture is escalation risk independent of intent: every additional deck in theater adds strike capacity and enlarges the surface for miscalculation or accident. Baseline is the standing one-carrier presence; the Oct 2026 concentration (three carriers ordered) is the largest since 2003. Carriers in transit count only once positioned — in-theater posture, not announcements.
Source: USNI News Fleet & Marine Tracker (weekly, via WordPress API).
Model weight: 9% of the composite score.