HORMUZ SIGNALescalation risk monitor

A live gauge of Iran-conflict risk for oil markets — built from shipping, insurance, and energy data, not headlines.

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Military tanker/airlift tempo (24h)

↑ = risk

aircraft/24h · adsb.lol open ADS-B feed (military filter)

One of the 13 inputs to the composite score. This page shows the latest reading against its peacetime baseline, the recent history, and how much stress this indicator currently adds.

Military tanker/airlift tempo (24h) at 155.0 aircraft/24h, 158% above the 60.0 normal.

Latest

155.0aircraft/24h

2026-10-20 01:58 UTC

Normal

~60.0aircraft/24h

registry baseline

7D trend

▼ 10%

improving · 7d

Observed min / max

18.0 – 192.0aircraft/24h

trailing 180 days

Model stress

61/ 100

A move of one model span (120.0 aircraft/24h) above the baseline corresponds to 66.7 stress. Stress rises toward 100 as conditions worsen; 100 is never reached.

History

trailing 180 days

About this indicator

Unique military tanker and strategic-airlift aircraft (KC-135/KC-46/KC-10, C-17, C-5) tracked over the trailing 24h via the adsb.lol open ADS-B feed, sampled on each ingest tick. Sustained tanker and airlift surges precede and sustain air campaigns — the "tankers rerouting east" signal. Coverage is partial (many military flights do not broadcast a position), so this reads tempo, not census. INTERIM CALIBRATION (Oct 2026): baseline/span set from first samples; recalibrate after ~30 days of collection.

Source: adsb.lol open ADS-B feed (military filter).

Model weight: 4% of the composite score.