HORMUZ SIGNALescalation risk monitor

A live gauge of Iran-conflict risk for oil markets — built from shipping, insurance, and energy data, not headlines.

Watch the strait, not the statements

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East-West pipeline outlet (Yanbu loadings)

↓ = risk

kb/d · IMF PortWatch Daily Ports (satellite AIS)

One of the ten inputs to the composite score. This page shows the latest reading against its peacetime baseline, the recent history, and how much stress this indicator currently adds.

0.00 kb/d vs a normal ~960.0 — currently at 0% of normal.

Latest

0.00kb/d

2026-09-25 00:00 UTC

Normal

~960.0kb/d

registry baseline

7D trend

0%

flat · 7d

Observed min / max

0.00 – 9,560kb/d

trailing 180 days

Model stress

100/ 100

Full stress (100) at ≈ 230.0 kb/d or lower — baseline minus the model span; 0 is the floor for counts.

History

trailing 180 days

About this indicator

Crude tanker loadings at Yanbu (King Fahd Port) — the Red Sea outlet of Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline (Petroline, ~5M bpd capacity), the main crude bypass around Hormuz. Pipeline flows are not published, so the terminal IS the measurement: when Hormuz is constrained this ramps toward capacity (observed ~4.8 mb/d, Jun 2026); a collapse means the bypass itself is offline. Terminal-level proxy — also reacts to Red Sea shipping avoidance.

Source: IMF PortWatch Daily Ports (satellite AIS).

Model weight: 8% of the composite score.